Rate Lock Advisory

Sunday, May 4th

This week brings us just one monthly and one quarterly economic report for the markets to digest, in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions. However, the third FOMC meeting of the year is also taking place this week and should bring some volatility before and the day it adjourns.

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Bonds

Market Closed

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Dow

Market Closed

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NASDAQ

Market Closed

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

ISM Service Index

Activities begin late tomorrow morning when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases their April non-manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET. This is the sister release to last week’s ISM manufacturing index, measuring sentiment of business executives in the service sector rather than manufacturing. Forecasts have the index slipping from March’s 50.8 to 50.4 last month. Good news for mortgage rates would be a weaker reading.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Next up is one of the two relevant Treasury auctions. 10-year Notes will be auctioned Tuesday while 30-year Bonds will be sold Thursday with results of each sale posted at 1:00 PM ET on auction day. If these sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading, causing downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sales, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal, could lead to higher mortgage pricing during afternoon trading.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

This week's FOMC meeting will begin Tuesday and will adjourn Wednesday afternoon at 2:00 PM ET. The consensus is that Chairman Powell and friends will leave key short-term interest rates at their current levels to see how tariffs and other conditions affect inflation and broader economic activity. This should be of no surprise to traders since Chairman Powell has made it very clear the Fed is no hurry to adjust key short-term interest rates. Their post-meeting statement will be released when it adjourns, which will be followed by a press conference at 2:30 PM with Chairman Powell. This meeting does not include revised economic projections.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

It may not be the Fed's lack of action that fuels afternoon market volatility though. Traders will be looking closely at the statement and press conference for hints about future moves, and it is that topic that will likely drive trading Wednesday afternoon. There is plenty of speculation when the Fed may act, so any clarification could heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon.

Medium

Unknown

Productivity and Costs (Quarterly)

Thursday's quarterly data is much less influential than Wednesday’s Fed events. In addition to the weekly unemployment update, 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data is also set for release at 8:30 AM ET. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity allow for low-inflationary economic growth. This update will likely be a non-factor for rates though unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts. Productivity is expected to have declined 0.5% while labor costs reading rose 4.0%. Good news for mortgage pricing would be a stronger rate of productivity and a smaller rise in labor costs.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

After the FOMC meeting Wednesday, members of the Fed will be allowed to speak publicly again. There are at least six speeches scheduled before the markets close Friday and a few more after they close. Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference Wednesday afternoon will give us more or less his thoughts and opinions about the Fed’s future moves. These individual speeches may yield other opinions in much more detail than the official FOMC statement will show, especially with no relevant economic data scheduled for Friday.

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Unknown

none

Overall, Wednesday is clearly the most important day for rates due to the FOMC events. None of the week’s other activities are considered to be key or highly influential. This means we may see minor or moderate movement in rates other days except Wednesday, unless something unexpected happens. In the day and age of tariffs and other geopolitical events, relevant headlines are possible at any time. Therefore, even though the week doesn’t have a large number of economic reports scheduled, it still would be prudent to maintain a close eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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