Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, February 3rd

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again, extending the recent upward momentum in yields. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 34 points and the Nasdaq down 231 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (4.28%), which should cause an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates.

2/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.28%

34

Dow

49,442

231

NASDAQ

23,360

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Neutral

Government Shutdown

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for today. The lack of influential political or economic headlines leaves bonds in their current rut, opening with minor losses for the fifth consecutive session. The government shutdown is expected to end today, but it hasn’t had an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates yet, so news of it ending shouldn’t do so either.

Medium

Unknown

ADP Employment

Tomorrow brings us the release of two economic reports that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. First will be January’s ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET that tracks changes in private-sector jobs. While it does draw attention, it is a non-governmental report that some consider to be overrated and not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that usually follows two days later. Since we often see a reaction to its results and Friday’s report is being delayed, it is worth watching. Analysts are expecting to see 42,000 new private jobs were added to the economy last month. A much smaller number would be favorable to mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

ISM Service Index

Next will be the release of the ISM’s non-manufacturing index (aka service index) at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This is the sister release to yesterday’s manufacturing index that showed an unexpected jump in sentiment. Tomorrow’s version tracks business executive opinions on conditions in the service sector rather than manufacturing. It is expected to show a reading of 53.8 for January, down a little from December's 54.4. A reading above 50.0 means more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who said it worsened. Good news for rates would be a much lower reading that signals the service sector was softer than thought last month.

---

Unknown

Employment Situation

It is worth noting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who compiles the relevant data and releases the monthly Employment report, has announced that January’s update will not be released Friday as originally scheduled. This is due to the current partial government shutdown that has prevented staff from finishing the report. A new release date will be announced once the shutdown ends and those employees return to work.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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